Capitulating to COVID

This is a very good article by science correspondent Nicola Davis at The Guardian.  

It reminded me of Dr Eric Topol's opinion piece The U.S. is facing the biggest COVID wave since Omicron. Why are we still playing make-believe?  and Gregg Gonsalves' column Covid, Year Four. Liberals are in denial. Conservatives are trying to destroy public health. And the virus is still raging.

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Covid on the rise as experts say England has ‘capitulated’ to the virus

"Covid is on the rise in England, and experts have warned that more must be done to prevent and control infections after a “capitulation to the virus”.

"Prof Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, said those working in the field were perplexed by the current attitude to the battle against Covid, as the latest figures showed an increase in hospital admissions.

"The latest data for England from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) showed that hospital admissions increased to 3.71 per 100,000 population for the week between 16 and 22 September 2024, compared with 2.56 per 100,000 the previous week.

"The percentage of people with symptoms who have tested positive for Covid, based on tests at sentinel “spotter” laboratories, has also risen in the last week to 11.8% compared with 9.1% in the previous week.

"Altmann described the prevailing stance on the virus as a “capitulation”. “To those who work in this field, the current attitude of acceptance to losing this war of attrition against Covid is puzzling and a little desperate,” he said.

“The data, both in the UK and US, show that the current Omicron subvariants are hugely successful at punching through any dwindling population immunity, so that we tolerate huge prevalence of around 12%. Our capitulation to the virus is a combination of a population where most are now many months or years from their last vaccine dose, and that vaccine dose was in any case poorly cross-protective for the very distinct current variants.

 “Clearly, there is behavioural polarisation between those who are worried by this and look for mitigation, and those who think we must learn live with it and paid too high a price for our earlier measures,” he said.

"Dr Simon Williams, from Swansea University, added that surveys suggest there is also a large group of people who are not thinking much about Covid at all. “Part of this is psychological – for two to three years it was something people had to think about all the time and is something that for many had many negative memories and feelings attached to it,” he said.

"While Altmann said debate around measures needed to be properly informed and data-driven and to avoid extreme stances, it was important not to trivialise the impact of the virus.

“Those at the weaker end of the immune response spectrum may often experience four or more breakthrough infections per year. These may range from mild to those needing several days of work, with all the associated economic costs, plus any additional NHS burden,” he said.

"Altmann also stressed the impact of long Covid, noting that it is thought to affect around 400 million people globally – with 3% lost workforce and a global cost estimate of $1tn annually – and can arise even in vaccinated people following reinfection.

"The latest Covid data comes as a new variant is expected to become prevalent in the coming months. Known as XEC, it was first identified in Germany over the summer, and cases have already been identified in the UK. It is thought to have emerged from two other Covid variants, themselves descended from the BA.2.86 variant.

"However, experts have said that, at present, XEC is not thought to cause different symptoms from previous variants and does not appear to be fuelling a surge in cases. It is also expected that Covid vaccinations and past infections will continue to offer protection against severe disease.

"While bookings for the NHS autumn Covid booster jabs opened this week, Altmann said they should be offered more widely, together with increased use of lateral flow testing to avoid the spread of Covid.

"Williams added that it was strange that more had not been done to clean indoor air and improve ventilation in public spaces including schools.

"But while he backed offering boosters more widely, he also raised concerns: “I worry that again this autumn we will see a relatively low uptake of the booster among priority groups, including younger adults with a compromised immune system.”