Sudden Increase in COVID Cases in the UK

I like to keep an eye on what's happening in the UK, because in the past, what happened there with COVID usually happened here afterwards. I'd rather know in advance than get caught by surprise.

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This is from The i Paper in London, 3/29/25:

Fears of new Covid wave as hospitalisations jump 19% in a week; Scientists tell The i Paper of their concerns that the new LP variants could be fuelling a new wave of Covid 

"Covid hospitalisations have risen by nearly a fifth in a week, raising concerns that the new dominant LP.8.1 variant may be driving a new wave of the virus.

"The number of people admitted to hospital with Covid jumped by 19 per cent in England to 1.46 people per 100,000 of the population in the week to 23 March, according to the latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

"This is the highest level since early January, although admissions are only a third of the level seen last October.

"The UKHSA data also showed the proportion of hospital patients in England testing positive for Covid increased by 6 per cent in the same week (23 March) – as the ‘positivity rate’ rose from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent.

"This follows a 6 per cent rise the previous week, meaning the positivity rate has risen by 12 per cent in two weeks.

"Despite the figures, scientists caution against reading too much into a week or two’s figures – while the current positivity rate is still just a quarter of the level last October and has been at relatively low levels for four months.

“It’s difficult to say for absolute certain that we are about to experience yet another wave of Covid infections here in the UK, but the portents are certainly there,” Professor Steve Griffin of Leeds University told The i Paper.

"Whilst the numbers and increases are comparatively small, this is expected at the beginning of [a new wave].”

"Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, added: “Last week’s data is an early warning alert that Covid is still lurking and on the rise.”

“This increase in infections and hospitalisations is most likely driven by yet another Covid variant (LP.8.1), which is spreading rapidly in Asia and North America,” he said.

"Scientists point out that positivity rates are much higher than the infection rate in the general population because only people with symptoms are being tested.
And they say it can’t be taken as a precise estimate for the level of Covid in the general population because it is only based on hospital patients.

"However, they say these “positivity rate” figures are a good indicator of trends for the virus more generally across the UK.

"Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA, highlighted the rise with the latest data release.

“We are now seeing small increases in Covid-19 heading into spring. We would encourage all those eligible for the upcoming spring Covid vaccination to ensure they take up the offer to top up their immunity for the coming months,” he said.

"The rise in Covid hospitalisations and infection rates has coincided with the rise of new dominant variants – known as the LP variants.

"However, scientists said it was too early to say whether we would see a fresh wave of the virus and, if so, whether that is being driven by the LP variants or other factors, such as waning immunity built up by vaccines and prior infections.

"Professor Young added: “While difficult to conclude too much from the data about a possible wave of infection, it does show that Covid has not settled into a seasonal pattern of infection.”

"He points out that “recent laboratory data indicates that the LP.8.1 variant is more infectious than previously circulating variants” while it is also slightly better at getting round immunity the body has built up.

"But because the LP variants are derived from JN.1, a previous dominant variant, they share largely similar characteristics. This means that past infections together with the current, updated, vaccines “should provide protection from severe disease,” he says.

'What is clear, however, is that the variants – known as LP.8.1 and LP.8.1.1 are more infectious and are accounting for an increasing share of Covid infections, becoming the dominant variants in recent weeks.

"Together, these variants account for about a third of of England’s Covid infections – making them the most common variants in the country, according to the latest UKHSA figures."