What Will Happen to COVID-19 in 2026? Experts Explain
"It has been almost six years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in 2020, and while it is no longer considered a public health emergency, it can still make more vulnerable people very unwell.
"As the virus is currently on the rise in the United States, which is typical in the winter months, Newsweek has spoken to experts about how COVID-19 will change in 2026, what symptoms to look out for, and whether Americans should be concerned about the virus.
"While some people can have mild symptoms when infected with COVID-19, others can have much more severe symptoms, potentially resulting in hospitalization and even death.
"Some may also go on to develop long COVID. Long COVID has become one of the most common chronic conditions among America's children.
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) previously estimated that between October 1, 2024, and September 27, 2025, there would be between 14.1 million and 20.7 million COVID-19 illnesses, 390,000 and 550,000 hospitalizations, and 45,000 and 64,000 deaths. As of June 1, 2024, nearly 1.2 million people have died of COVID-19 in the U.S.
"There are many different variants of COVID-19 - some reports say more than 20 - but experts believe that the Omicron variants will be circulating the most in 2026.
"The currently circulating COVID variants all are part of the Omicron family that has been with us for several years now," Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and of medicine at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Newsweek.
"The most recent variant, descended from the Omicron family, is called XFG, or Stratus, Dr Thomas Russo, a professor and chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek.
"It appears to be more immune evasive than its processors, thereby enabling it to become dominant since immunity from prior infection or vaccination was imperfect," he said.
"XFG is therefore currently "driving cases," Russo said, but he added that a "new variant is due to emerge," although the timing is uncertain.
"COVID-19 can result in a wide range of symptoms, such as fevers, chills, cough, shortness of breath, congestion, sore throat, loss of taste or smell, fatigue, body aches, headache, and many others, according to the CDC.
"It is likely that symptoms will continue to be the same in 2026, "ranging from a sore throat and mild cold symptoms to severe disease and death depending on the host," Russo said.
"Children under the age of 4, pregnant women, those older than 65, those who are immunocompromised and those who have underlying diseases are "more likely to have a bad outcome," he added.
"Schaffner said he thought the current COVID-19 viruses would "continue to cause much mild disease this winter, but also severe disease." He said that there has been an "uptick in hospitalized cases" of COVID, indicating the start of the expected winter surge.
"At present, the COVID virus is "mutating steadily within the Omicron family," he said. "Fortunately, no dramatically new virus variant has emerged on the international scene for several years."
"However, Russo said he thought that at some point, perhaps this winter, a new variant will "arise that is either more infectious than XFG, or is better at evading pre-existing immunity, or some combination of the two."
"Aside from virus mutation, vaccination has an impact on COVID-19 hospitalization rates. Schaffner said amid the current increase in hospitalizations in relation to COVID-19, "virtually none are up-to-date with COVID vaccination."
"He said the COVID vaccine "continues to protect against severe disease and, sadly, continues to be underused in our population."
"Schaffner said he would "urge Americans to be aware and respect the seriousness of COVID disease." He added that especially those who are older or have chronic medical conditions, are immunocompromised or who are pregnant should "take advantage of the vaccine soon."
"We cannot be complacent with COVID," Russo said. It remains a "potentially lethal disease, particularly in high-risk individuals," he added.
"He said there is also a further risk of Americans developing long COVID, which he said can "occur in anyone and should be a particular concern for younger, healthy individuals that are at low risk for developing severe disease."
"Russo said the best way to minimize these risks is to "get vaccinated at least once a year - selected high-risk individuals may benefit from two shots a year."
"Although the COVID vaccine is imperfect against preventing infection, it is very good at decreasing your chances of being hospitalized or dying," he said.
"Recent data suggests that COVID cases may be increasing once again," he added. "Now is the time to get vaccinated to protect yourself and loved ones."
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