A COVID Non-Surprise

Unless you are living in absolute denial, here is some COVID information you won't be at all surprised to hear. 

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From Today 12/23/24:

A ‘silent’ COVID surge may hit the US over the holidays, experts warn — here's what that means

"This year's winter COVID wave is off to a later start than usual, and some experts are warning about a potential "silent" surge in transmission over the holidays.

"They're calling it "silent" because there was less COVID activity than usual this past fall, so many people are unaware that rates have sharply risen over the past two weeks, the most recent data on COVID activity in wastewater from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

"As a result, people may not know their risk of infection is increasing and not test if they have only mild symptoms, which can cause the virus to spread at holiday gatherings, during travel and more.

“There’s a good chance that a lot of people are going to get sick in the next couple of weeks and be unaware of it. Most people are not tracking CDC data, and so their way of knowing whether we’re in a wave is if they’ve gotten sick,” Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine and public health expert on tracking COVID-19 trends, tells TODAY.com. 

"While the current data does not yet show the U.S. is in a COVID surge, the country is entering its 10th COVID wave since the pandemic started, Hoerger adds.

"But there's a great deal of uncertainty about how bad this wave will be and how long it will last. “This is a very risky time in terms of lots of people interacting indoors, so we don’t really know how quickly transmission can pick up,” Hoerger says.

A risk of "silent" transmission over the holidays

"While the U.S. is not currently seeing a large COVID surge, there has been a clear uptick in the last two weeks, according to data from the CDC. And cases are likely to continue to increase.

“As of Friday, December 20, COVID-19 levels in wastewater are moderate nationally,” Dr. Jonathan Yoder, deputy director of the CDC Division of Infectious Disease Readiness and Innovation, tells TODAY.com. Wastewater data from the prior week was “low” nationally. Levels are highest in the Midwest.

“Nationally, COVID-19 levels in wastewater have been increasing through the month of December, following a period of low levels in October and November,” Yoder adds.

National and regional trends of wastewater viral activity levels of SARS-COV-2CDC

"The CDC no longer tracks the total number of new COVID cases in the U.S., instead estimating transmission levels using wastewater surveillance, test positivity and emergency department visits.

"COVID test positivity is at 5.6%, up 0.5% from the previous week, per CDC data. COVID-related emergency room visits and deaths are also increasing very slightly.

“The issue with this winter’s wave is it’s a lot different than previous ones," Hoerger explains. "Transmission was freakishly low for November, and so people are kind of lulled into a false sense of security.”