Here's the main excerpt from Dr Caitlin Rivers' latest newsletter:
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It looks like we have turned the corner. Outpatient ILI activity has dropped for two weeks in a row. The timing is particularly convincing. While data around the holidays can be unreliable, we're now past that period of uncertainty. The trend we're seeing is more likely to reflect genuine improvement rather than reporting artifacts.
Around 5.4% of visits to the doctor were for fever and cough or sore throat during the week ending January 11th, down from 6.3% the week prior. However, we will remain in flu season for many weeks, so don't get too comfortable just yet.
Children have seen major improvements in outpatient ILI, with visits in the 0-4 age group falling from a recent high of 16.5% to 13.4% at last report. The 5-24 age group has seen similar improvements, falling from 10.2% to 7.3%. The adult age groups are all now below 5% and are also seeing improvements.
All four regions of the country are enjoying similar declines. As of last report, the Northeast is in best shape (as measured by emergency department visits) though there are some hot spots including New York City and New Jersey. The Southern and Western regions are still recovering from the high rates of ED visits they weathered around the New Year. The consistent pattern across the country gives me further confidence that we are past peak.
Covid-19 remains elevated, but I’m cautiously optimistic that it may be starting to ease up.
Wastewater activity is high, but it has come down a bit in the past week. Activity is highest in the Midwest, where SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration is about double what it is in the West, where rates are lowest.
Severe illness continues to be a bit elevated. Trips to the emergency department for Covid-19 remained roughly steady this past week, at 1.3% of all trips to the ED. Hospitalizations have declined slightly in the past week to 4.3 per 100,000 but are still a bit elevated.
It is cold season, and as expected, two of the common causes of mild cold-like illness - human coronaviruses and human metapneumovirus are circulating widely.
As with influenza, RSV is beginning to recede with all four regions of the country registering declines in ED visits for the virus. I expect further improvements in the weeks to come.
I really wish I had better news because norovirus is so deeply unpleasant, but rates have continued to rise. We are in the middle of very large wave, with 28% test positivity. Norovirus goes through annual waves in the winter months, but this year is a rough one. Current test positivity is now substantially higher than it has been at any point in more than 5 years. And by substantially, I mean nearly double. Yuck.
"Why is it so bad this year? It might be due to a new strain of norovirus that is circulating; lower population immunity to this strain may explain some of the high rates we are seeing. The good news is this strain does not appear to be worse in terms of how sick it makes you, and prevention measures remain the same: keep washing those hands (soap and water is most effective)!"
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