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"Just over 5 years ago, on New Year’s Eve 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) became aware of the first cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China. A massive global infectious disease storm was already brewing—one that would shut down the world, with profound economic, social, and political impacts that still reverberate today. It’s understandable that governments and individuals may want to forget that the COVID-19 pandemic ever happened, but such collective amnesia prevents humanity from being ready for the next pandemic. The world did the same in the 1920s, eager to move on from the devastation of the 1918 influenza pandemic. A repeat of this behavior squanders opportunities right now to institutionalize and embed best practices for current and future threats.
"From 1 January 2020, WHO activated emergency
response mechanisms and worked with public, private, international and
nongovernmental organizations, academic and research institutions, and
others to confront COVID-19 around the world. This included steps to
bolster surveillance; implement evidencebased strategies and guidance to
prevent spread; improve communication; deliver diagnostics, vaccines,
and medicines; and more. At its peak in January 2021, countries were
reporting about 100,000 COVID-19–related deaths every week. The number of reported cases reached 23.5 million per week in early 2022
when the Omicron variant emerged. Since 2020, at least 7 million deaths
have been reported to WHO, although actual mortality estimates are at
least three times higher. The full impact of the pandemic remains to be
understood and quantified.
"Now in its sixth
year of circulation, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2)—the virus that causes COVID-19—continues to evolve and
infect people, leading to serious disease, post COVID-19 condition (also
called Long Covid), and death. WHO currently receives COVID-19 data on
deaths from only about 34 countries of 234 countries and territories
worldwide. Just among that subset, there is an average of at least 4000
deaths per month. Although high levels of COVID-19 vaccination were
achieved during the first 3 years of the pandemic in countries with
access to vaccines, current rates are extremely low. Fewer
than 2% of at-risk individuals over the age of 60 years across WHO
member states reportedly have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose since the beginning of 2024, with similarly low uptake even among health and care workers.
"Numerous independent panels have made more than 300 recommendations to
prevent a future catastrophe, but the lack of progress threatens to
erase the hard-earned gains made during the pandemic. Unfortunately, it
is increasingly difficult to prepare for the next pandemic, especially
because of decreased trust in political leaders, institutions, and
science, and urgent national priorities. Despite these challenges, WHO
member states continue to craft a legally binding agreement aimed at strengthening pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response.
Advancing this agreement is critical to shore up systems and capacities
ahead of the next pandemic. Although negotiations have been tough, they
have not ended, and the shared sense of urgency will hopefully drive
countries to find a way forward and finalize the agreement in time for
the World Health Assembly in May 2025.
"It is imperative along the way that all countries
commit to principles of transparency and share information during future
outbreaks—not to assign blame—so that all countries can take concrete
steps to prevent, prepare, and mitigate future epidemics and pandemics.
Sadly, the world still lacks the data and access needed to fully understand the origins of COVID-19.
Such information will help prevent pandemics at their outsets. WHO has
repeatedly asked China to share all available information on the
earliest cases, animals sold in Wuhan markets, labs working with
coronaviruses, and more, but to date it has not received this
information.
"Not only is COVID-19 still a
global health threat, but last year, the world saw the resurgence,
emergence, or geographic expansion of avian influenza, mpox, cholera,
dengue fever, Oropouche fever, Marburg virus disease, and others
infectious diseases. Climate change and increasing interactions between
animals and humans are boosting the risks of new or reemerging diseases.
The legacy of COVID-19 must not be defined solely by pain, loss, and
disruption. Rather, the experience is fraught with lessons that the
world should not waste. The next pandemic—which is not a matter of if,
but when—will not wait."
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