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COVID & Health News, 10/12/25
The CDC has had a data blackout since the government shutdown two weeks ago, so most government data on COVID infections has stopped being posted. Early indicators like COVID case positivity and Emergency Department visits had gone down at that time, so it appears that the summer COVID wave is winding down.
JP Weiland states that we are probably at a yearly low of about 150,000 to 200,000 new COVID cases per day in the U.S. He calculated his modeling with data from WastewaterSCAN since the CDC wastewater and the CDC Emergency Department data is unavailable. On October 6th, he mentioned that cases of Rhinovirus (the common cold) had been increasing which is not surprising for this time of year.
Mike Hoerger predicted that we had about 602,000 new COVID cases daily on October 6. However, his prediction model uses CDC data and Biobot data which may limit its accuracy right now. I would imagine that we are closer to 200,000 to 300,000 COVID cases per day now given the available information.
WastewaterSCAN omits 12 states, but their data is more up to date. As of 10/11/25, there are LOW levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater in the South, with the rest of the US at a more MEDIUM level.
Many European countries are experiencing significant COVID waves now. Hospitalizations for COVID have increased sharply in England and pharmacies across France are reporting widespread shortages of home COVID self-testing kits following a surge in demand. The spike coincides with rising case counts linked to the XFG variant. Swiss epidemiologists warn of a potentially intense upcoming respiratory infection season and have advised vulnerable populations, as well as symptomatic individuals, to voluntarily wear masks indoors especially in crowded or public transport settings.
From: Bob Hawkins https://substack.com/@bhawkins3
The U.S. CDC and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) quietly updated recommendations this week and now specifically include pregnant women among those eligible for COVID vaccination. Under the new policy, pharmacies may administer the vaccine to pregnant people and insurers are required to cover it without cost sharing. This is consistent with recommendations from the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (ACOG).
A new study shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection disrupts the nasal and the oral microbiota during pregnancy, leading to an increase in harmful bacteria (pathobionts) and reduction in microbiome diversity, especially in symptomatic pregnant individuals. Increase in pathobiont bacteria correlated with the severity of COVID symptoms and the authors found that “the nasopharyngeal microbiota appears to be a better predictor of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its severity than the oral microbiota” in pregnancy.
Getting COVID boosters is still important. Regardless of immunity from prior COVID infection or vaccination, a study of nearly 300,000 U.S. veterans showed that people who got the 2024–25 COVID booster had substantially fewer ER visits, hospitalization, and deaths compared to those who got only the flu shot. The continued benefits of COVID boosters were seen across all age groups and health statuses.
In a randomized, double-blind trial of 436 participants who took Paxlovid and experienced COVID rebound, a second 5-day retreatment with Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) led to a significantly greater reduction in viral RNA at Day 5 compared to placebo. The retreatment group reached two consecutive negative antigen tests in median 4 days vs. 5 in placebo, and symptom resolution in 8 vs. 9 days. No hospitalizations or deaths occurred with COVID rebound. The authors concluded that retreatment is safe and accelerates viral decline, but there is no clear clinical advantage of taking a second dose of Paxlovid in rebound cases since rebound is often mild and self-limited.
Scientists built a three-armed ACE2 “decoy” that latches onto the coronavirus’ spike protein in three places at once. The decoy blocked all tested SARS-CoV-2 variants, and even blocked SARS-1, suggesting broad-spectrum potential against coronavirus infection.
Invivyd announced that they received FDA clearance to start testing VYD2311 which is a monoclonal antibody meant to offer vaccine-like protection against COVID infection.
A new comprehensive review from Stanford looked at immune, vascular, neurologic and cardiovascular dysfunction in Long COVID showing evidence for endothelial injury in blood vessels, heart muscle damage, and autonomic dysregulation. It also discussed some new lab models being used including iPSC-derived cardiac tissues and organ-on-chip models, as well as analytical AI tools.
Fig. 2 Cell type-specific mechanisms underlying COVID-19-associated cardiac injury.
From: https://www.jmcc-online.com/article/S0022-2828(25)00178-6/fulltext#f0010
Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are precursor cells that differentiate into mature endothelial cells that line blood vessels, forming new blood vessels and promoting tissue repair after injury. In a small study, researchers from Spain isolated EPCs from post-COVID patients at both 3 and 6 months and compared them to EPCs from healthy controls. They found that 3 and 6 months after COVID infection, there was persistent dysregulation of genes related to vascular repair, oxidative stress, and inflammatory signaling in EPCs, showing that long lasting damage to endothelial cells and abnormal gene transcription can persist months after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.
From: https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(25)01992-3
In a large retrospective study of ≥ 73,000 matched vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID patients (and ~77,800 matched influenza controls), scientists from the Cleveland Clinic assessed ten eye conditions after COVID infection. COVID vaccination was associated with lower incidence of retinal edema (OR 0.68), vitreous hemorrhage (OR 0.55), and optic neuritis (OR 0.60) with COVID infection. Compared to influenza infection, COVID infection was associated with higher odds of diplopia (OR 1.89) and cranial nerve VI palsy (OR 3.19), while risks for other retinal outcomes were similar.
Using EEG and brain imaging from 70 people after COVID infection, researchers found disrupted slow-wave brain activity and damaged white-matter pathways linked to memory and decision-making. The findings reveal two distinct “brain profiles”, hinting that post-COVID cognitive changes are not one syndrome but several and each has its own neural signature.
Using AI to evaluate gene transcription of peripheral blood mononuclear immune cells (PBMCs), Iranian researchers found that COVID infection activates many of the same inflammatory gene programs seen in Multiple Sclerosis and Alzheimer’s Disease. The findings raise the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 might push the immune system toward neurodegenerative changes.
In a retrospective case/control, proof-of-concept study of 47 severe ME/CFS patients and 61 matched healthy controls, researchers used a 3D chromosome conformation profiling method (EpiSwitch®) to derive a 200-marker signature (“EpiSwitch®CFS test”) that distinguished severe ME/CFS with 92% sensitivity, 98% specificity, and about 96% overall accuracy. Pathway analysis linked these markers to immune/inflammation signaling including IL-2, TNF, toll-like receptor, and JAK/STAT networks. The authors note the need for larger, prospective multicenter validation and testing against other chronic inflammatory or autoimmune disorders to make sure that the test can differentiate between severe ME and other diseases like Multiple Sclerosis or fibromyalgia.
The United States has surpassed a 33 year record for measles. As of October 7, 2025, a total of 1,563 confirmed measles cases were reported in the United States, with 12% of cases hospitalized (193 of 1563), and 3 confirmed deaths from measles.
At least 270 unvaccinated children have been quarantined for measles as outbreaks spread across multiple U.S. states, including 153 cases in South Carolina, 118 in Minnesota, and 103 cases along the Arizona-Utah border. Falling vaccination rates are fueling these outbreaks, which have led to weeks of remote learning and community disruption. Unvaccinated children must be quarantined for 21 days which is the length of possible incubation for the measles. Infectious disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm warned, “Expect more of the same,” predicting that measles outbreaks will become more frequent.
From: https://publichealth.jhu.edu/ivac/resources/us-measles-tracker
Late Friday night, the Trump administration laid off the key CDC personnel including the “disease detectives” (aka the Epidemic Intelligence Service officers who respond to infection outbreaks around the world), senior scientists, the MMWR staff and the entire Washington CDC office. Per the New York Times, “it was the latest blow to an agency that has been wracked by mass resignations, a shooting at its Atlanta headquarters in August and the firing of its director [Susan Monarez] under pressure from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” The layoffs are concerning for our country’s capacity to respond to outbreaks and public health threats. Today, about half of the CDC workers who were laid off late Friday have now been reinstated.
Separately, when asked about Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, President Trump told reporters that he had spoken with her by phone and claimed that Machado said, “I am accepting it [the Nobel Peace Prize] in honor of you [Trump] because you really deserved it.”
Earlier this week, six former U.S. Surgeons General co-authored an editorial warning that RFK Jr.’s record of promoting vaccine misinformation and rejecting scientific consensus poses a serious risk to public health. Separately, 300 psychiatrists called for Kennedy’s removal as Health Secretary for promoting views contrary to medical evidence. They warn that his personal views conflict with the responsibilities of overseeing national mental health, substance abuse, and public health programs.
Amid these controversies, RFK Jr. said that Tylenol might cause autism, saying “There is no proof, but we’re doing the studies to make the proof.”
As previously discussed, a large Swedish sibling-control study of 2.5 million children, published in JAMA (4/9/24), found no link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use during pregnancy and autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability.
Earlier this week, the CDC announced that it was stepping back from universal COVID vaccine recommendations and instead was encouraging individualized provider-patient conversations. The CDC also revised the pediatric immunization schedule to remove the V (varicella or chickenpox vaccine) from the MMRV combination vaccine.
The CDC director also proposed splitting the MMR (measles-mumps-rubella vaccine) into 3 separate vaccines despite scientific evidence showing that the combined vaccine is effective and safe. Dr. Jake Scott wrote an Op Ed entitled “Why the CDC director is wrong about the MMR vaccine”. Separating combination vaccines into individual ones would add economic, environmental, and social costs, and requiring multiple appointments makes it less likely that children will complete the series to be fully protected.
In contrast, California’s current recommendations for vaccination against respiratory viruses follow guidance from scientific societies like the AAP and ACOG.
Carl Zimmer and colleagues launched a new series in the New York Times called “Lost Science” which tells the stories of “scientists who have lost their jobs or funding after cuts by the Trump administration.” The first article focuses on a scientist who lost funding for a project studying how fires affect pollinators like bees.
From: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/science/ecology-forests-pollinators.html?unlocked_article_code=1.r08.uAIn.OfGTJJC8nTNM
WastewaterSCAN shows several areas with HIGH levels of EVD68 in California (San Francisco, San Jose, Ontario, Lompoc), Iowa and Chicago. EVD68 mostly causes common cold symptoms, but occasionally it has led to outbreaks of a polio-like disease in children called Acute Flaccid Myelitis (AFM).
Researchers analyzed immune cell profiles from women before and after menopause and found a significant rise in inflammatory monocytes associated with aging and hormonal decline. Postmenopausal women on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) showed reversal of this proinflammatory pattern, suggesting that estrogen deficiency contributes to immune aging. The study highlights HRT’s potential to restore immune balance and reduce inflammaging linked to menopause.
A study shows that in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), patients have CD4⁺ T cells reactive to the neuronal protein C9orf72, with skewing toward IL-4, IL-5, and IL-10 secretion. The presence of these autoreactive T cells supports an autoimmune component to ALS and suggests that the balance of inflammatory versus regulatory T cell responses may influence disease progression and represent a therapeutic target.
A study from Italy found that pancreatic beta cells from people with Type 2 Diabetes regained normal glucose responsiveness in 60% of cases after just three days in normal glucose conditions. This recovery involved changes in over 400 genes linked to inflammation, MAPK, and autophagy pathways. The JAK inhibitor medication Baricitinib, which is already used for rheumatoid arthritis and severe COVID, was found to enhance insulin secretion in human islets, beta-cell lines, and in diabetic mice, suggesting the potential to restore beta cell insulin secretion in Type 2 Diabetes.
When Donell Stallworth, a cook at the Shrimp Basket in Pensacola, noticed that his regular customer Charlie Hicks hadn’t come in for his daily gumbo, he grew worried. After calls went unanswered, Donell drove to the 78-year-old’s home and found him barely conscious on the floor. He called 911 and stayed until help arrived- actions that saved Charlie’s life. Later, Donell visited Charlie in the hospital, bringing him a bowl of his favorite gumbo.
Donell and Charlie
Have a good week,
Ruth Ann Crystal MD
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